This column originally ran in The Standard-Times on Sept. 30, 2006.

By Nick Tavares

The last weekend of the regular season, all 162 games of it, is upon us and the St. Louis Cardinals are staring destiny square in the face.

And hopefully they're squinting, because the view isn't pretty.

St. Louis, which has held a commanding lead in the National League Central most of the season, is sitting uncomfortably, just a half-game up on the upstart Houston Astros, heading into last night.

And even though the Cardinals beat the Milwaukee Brewers, 10-5, and the Astros lost 4-1 to the Braves to push the Cardinals' lead back to 1 1/2 games with a handful of games left (the Astros have two, the Cardinals have two.)

Mainly, the Cards can still suffer one of the greatest collapses in baseball history. Or the Astros are on the verge of one of the greatest comebacks of all time &

depending on where your allegiance lies.

As far as historical collapses go, this is running with the greats. The story of the Red Sox deflation in 1978 has been told plenty of times, but two other races also shine brightly upon reflection.

The '64 Phillies held a 61/2-game lead going into the last week before falling on their faces, handing the pennant to the Cardinals.

On Sept. 20, the Phillies defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers in a relatively non-descript 3-2 decision. Dick Allen and Tony Taylor drove in runs for Philly, while Jim Bunning went the distance for his 18th win of the season.

It's hard to tell how much they enjoyed that win, but it's probably a safe bet that they, with 12 games remaining, didn't enjoy losing the next 10 games. Sweeps by the Reds, Milwaukee Braves and Cardinals all but sealed their fate. Philadelphia won its last two games, but so did St. Louis, which finished one game up on the ill-fated Phils.

The 1995 Angels had a 13-game lead over the Seattle Mariners in August, but the red-hot M's rallied for to take the division and the ALDS from the Yankees before falling to Cleveland in the ALCS.

The Angels collapse has always be a personal favorite baseball memory of mine. The true horror of California's demise was personally softened by the fact that Edgar Martinez was (and always will be) a favorite of mine.

In August, Martinez hit .398 with an insane 1.386 OPS (on-base plus slugging) to go along with nine home runs and 33 RBIs. Not surprisingly, on Sept. — the Mariners were just 61/2 games back. While Mo Vaughn and Albert Belle wound up finishing 1-2 in the MVP voting that year, it becomes more and more obvious as time passes that Martinez was robbed.

All the while in Anaheim, the Angels went a stretch in mid-August through September when they went 9-28, while the Mariners kept rolling. Randy Johnson won six games down the stretch to set up his seventh win in the one-game playoff for the division. Mark Langston was no match for the mighty M's, as Seattle won 9-1 with Luis Sojo, of all people, leading the charge with three RBIs.

So how do our Astros fare in historical terms? Well, nine straight wins while your opponent loses eight of nine and, in the process, dwindles an 81/2-game lead down to just a half-game, will leave you in good historical company.

Houston, to set this up, has six-straight wins from Roy Oswalt to thank, while Roger Clemens, though rarely lasting more than six innings, had posted a 2.57 ERA this month before last night, and may have picked the right race to join after all. Not to be outdone, Lance Berkman has led the charge with a .348 average this month along with a 1.141 OPS and eight home runs.

St. Louis is perfectly capable of slamming the door shut once and for all, but they were reeling like few others. Other than Albert Pujols, no regular is hitting over .300 this month, while its team ERA of 4.55 is more than a full run higher than Houston's 3.38.

In baseball, momentum is fickle, but slides like St. Louis' are historic. If history is any indicator, the Astros will sail into October again, with Clemens, Oswalt and company getting another crack at postseason glory.

Nick Tavares is a columnist for The Standard-Times. Contact him at ntavares@s-t.com

Date of Publication September 30, 2006 on Page B04